Islands are highly vulnerable to natural disasters and extreme weather events due to their physical size, remoteness, and limited resources. This paper measured village-level drought risk in Marinduque, Philippines using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and fuzzy logic. Standard Precipitation Index was used to measure drought hazards in the province utilizing publicly available rainfall. Principal component analysis was used to derive the drought hazard index from SPI-calculated drought magnitude and total drought event at different time scales. The fuzzy logic approach was used to delineate the physical vulnerability of the province to drought. The social vulnerability index was also derived from the socioeconomic and demographic data of Marinduque using PCA. Based on the results, villages with high drought risk were found in the northwest and eastern portion of the province. The results showed that topography and climate influence the hazard and physical vulnerability to drought in the area. Villages in high mountainous regions, and areas with low rainfall have higher drought hazard and physical vulnerability scores. Meanwhile, villages with high social vulnerability are also those with a large population of women, the elderly, and households engage in agriculture. Results from this study can be used to develop plans and policies to mitigate and reduce the potential impact of future drought events in the province. The approach used in this study can be replicated in other areas of the country.

Read the full article: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11069-022-05795-w