The clustering of tuberculosis cases could be linked to the El Niño phenomenon

This study focused on tuberculosis (TB) cases in Region III of the Philippines for the years 2019, 2020, and 2021, using Geographic Information System (GIS) and spatial analysis tools. The analysis aimed to identify if there were clusters of TB cases in the region during these periods. The results revealed that only the year 2019 showed a significant clustering of TB cases, potentially linked to the El Niño phenomenon during that time. In contrast, the years 2020 and 2021 showed random occurrences, which could be attributed to underreporting influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic. The study also visualized the changes in TB hot spots over time. The impact of the El Niño event on TB cases highlights the complex relationship between environmental factors and disease transmission. The findings underscore the importance of considering external factors, such as climate anomalies and health system responses, when analyzing disease patterns. Understanding these dynamics can help improve TB prevention and treatment strategies in the future. The research provides an evidence-based framework for TB response, aiding in resource allocation and intervention strategies to combat the disease.

Authors: Nelda Atibagos-Nacion (Mathematics and Statistics Department, De La Salle University-Dasmarinas) and Alex C. Gonzaga (Department of Physical Sciences and Mathematics, College of Arts and Sciences, University of the Philippines Manila)

Read the paper: https://www.e3s-conferences.org/articles/e3sconf/abs/2024/31/e3sconf_iccsei2023_02005/e3sconf_iccsei2023_02005.html